Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 11.356448 13.013120 14.798916 16.863502 19.180994 21.698364 24.636076
2025-06-15 8.931830 11.176553 13.785280 17.026721 20.930840 25.465206 31.112852
2025-06-22 7.854005 10.394142 13.489697 17.512507 22.571739 28.690513 36.614100
2025-06-29 6.733944 9.385246 12.760162 17.328447 23.301339 30.790305 40.827234
2025-07-06 5.629656 8.226875 11.666640 16.496927 23.035376 31.499306 43.190490
2025-07-13 5.164428 7.861301 11.556391 16.909676 24.371055 34.290919 48.341023
2025-07-20 4.746443 7.505368 11.406519 17.223234 25.550355 36.893064 53.326606
2025-07-27 4.283182 7.028853 11.031806 17.168001 26.180296 38.742856 57.338153
2025-08-03 3.843944 6.539372 10.586893 16.958620 26.548133 40.210928 60.847948
2025-08-10 3.515947 6.187209 10.310803 16.964721 27.207351 42.096928 65.006698
2025-08-17 3.263346 5.929129 10.152565 17.126875 28.090145 44.326305 69.737060
2025-08-24 2.996714 5.620494 9.885735 17.091206 28.652897 46.088436 73.831312
2025-08-31 2.722551 5.278344 9.545571 16.925790 29.020312 47.600363 77.666210
2025-09-07 2.532781 5.065648 9.401586 17.066301 29.874522 49.889417 82.780954
2025-09-14 2.423505 4.985941 9.472697 17.561416 31.316287 53.139659 89.498233
2025-09-21 2.213317 4.697987 9.158166 17.374016 31.613732 54.582431 93.421263
2025-09-28 1.929048 4.239152 8.501637 16.541505 30.769615 54.135943 94.288430
2025-10-05 1.848128 4.171037 8.548320 16.954903 32.068677 57.228430 100.989198
2025-10-12 1.759927 4.079331 8.542690 17.269330 33.205213 60.090276 107.411045
2025-10-19 1.632738 3.894292 8.344966 17.213922 33.679439 61.852260 112.063447
2025-10-26 1.498844 3.681336 8.075895 17.004057 33.858998 63.110938 115.904865
2025-11-02 1.400250 3.535053 7.926489 17.010167 34.426196 65.050718 120.964473
2025-11-09 1.325542 3.434507 7.860981 17.172709 35.285787 67.526778 127.026519